Why Every Company Needs a New Type of Operating System Enhanced with Artificial Intelligence


IMG_20150909_130429

Kyield founder Mark Montgomery on top of NM Oct., 2016, taken by Betsy Montgomery with their dog Austin

 

The Amazon acquisition of Whole Foods represents yet another confirmation of our rapidly changing business environment driven by opportunities at the confluence of technology and network dynamics. Although only the latest in a powerful trend initially impacting in this case the grocery industry, the business and technology issues driving the strategy are relevant to most and serves as a reminder that digital convergence is not confined to traditional thinking or industry lines.

A sharp devaluation of public grocery companies followed, so apparently many investors share concerns highlighted in the current HBR article “Managing Our Hub Economy”, which warns that “most companies will not become hubs, and they will need to respond astutely to the growing concentration of hub power”. The devil in the details for management is how to respond astutely. The answer is largely an AI OS.

A recent article at MIT SMR describes the complex operating environment: “The Five Steps All Leaders Must Take in the Age of Uncertainty”:

These ecosystems are nested complex adaptive systems: multilevel, interconnected, dynamic systems hosting local interactions that can give rise to unpredictable global effects and vice versa. Acknowledging the unpredictability, nonlinearity, and circularity of cause-and-effect relationships within these systems is a notable departure from the simpler, linear models that underpin traditional mechanistic management thinking.

One of the reasons for the attention in this latest combination is the integration of virtual networks with physical locations, which has been a priority for many companies, including Kroger, which shares many of the same zip codes as Whole Foods. A few days following the announcement Kroger Chairman and CEO Rodney McMullen revealed that he wasn’t surprised: “you could tell that Amazon wanted to do something from a physical asset standpoint and I think Whole Foods is a great fit for them.” Kroger is a well-managed company known for wise use of analytics, which is reflected in McMullen’s advice to investors: “you should assume that we look at any potential opportunities”.

We needed a new operating system” – Doug McMillion, CEO of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.

The question is will traditional methods be sufficient moving forward? The answer may be found in part by looking at the world’s largest retailer. Wal-Mart was viewed as one of the most stable companies before Amazon entered their core lines of business, eventually leading to the recent conclusion by Wal-Mart CEO Doug McMillon: “We needed a new operating system”. The company recently paid $3 billion for an e-commerce component of a new OS in Jet.com, which may seem excessive to those of us unaccustomed to managing a half-trillion USD in annual revenue, though represents a relatively minor investment if it works well.

Unfortunately for 99.99% of businesses, investing $3 billion in a native e-commerce platform is not an option, particularly one experiencing significant losses. Very few of the remaining .01% could consider doing so for a partial OS. Even Walmart’s bold actions appear insufficient when we consider that the acquisition of Whole Foods was powered less by the core business of Amazon or Whole Foods than the bold manifestation of what was previously learned, resulting in an entirely new and much better business model in AWS (see article on spinning off AWS). Amazon’s strength is its ability to learn rapidly, recognize potential, and then convert and realize interconnected opportunity to new offerings in a fiercely competitive manner.

Competing in such a hypercompetitive and rapidly changing environment can be especially difficult for companies thinking and behaving in a linear manner. The retraining for me personally that began in our lab in the 1990s was a profound voyage initiating from a relatively high level. The technical training and transition involved a sharp learning curve that has only become steeper and more intense with time.

Native platforms are quite different than corporate networks that have evolved incrementally over decades. Understanding related opportunities and risk many years in advance is a critical challenge. One must peer through an asymmetrical prism constructed from tens of thousands of hours of total immersion and make bold bets that are well timed, particularly with AI systems.

Among many lessons learned is that the network economy is not only interconnected, it is also multidimensional and pre-programmed. When managed optimally and competitively the entire experience of the customer is an obsession with little deference for traditional lines.

Important considerations for an AI OS

1 – A competitive AI OS will be necessary for most to survive

Essentially all the evidence we see with mid-size companies to market leaders across most industries is that a strong AI OS is rapidly becoming the new competitive bar. If a company doesn’t have a competitive AI OS platform and the competition does, it will likely negatively impact the entire organization and each individual within it, as well as customers and partners. Google and Amazon are examples of companies that appear to be employing some functions similar to those found in our Kyield OS. While leadership and corporate strengths are critical, employing advanced AI systems is among the most important improvements any organization can make. The question really is how and when.

2  – An organization OS is not a computer OS

Many different types of operating systems exist. A few minutes of reading my book (condensed version) Ascension to a Higher Level of Performance will highlight the difference between the Kyield OS and a computer OS. The standard system is focused on universal issues common to all organizations, individuals, and networks. We have good reason to believe Kyield is among the world’s competency leaders in knowledge systems, which is a sub-specialty of artificial intelligence.

Our focus is a thin yet broad and very deep specialty with little overlap to most others, including AWS, Azure, and Google (Kyield OS integrates well with most others). Although executed with software, the Kyield OS is a ‘low code’ system compared to a computer OS and more dependent upon data and algorithmics. The system operates in the background with a simple natural language interface for corporate, group, and individual administration. The Kyield OS is transparent, non-intrusive, and interoperable so that any function can be added as needed in a highly efficient manner.

A recent note from a Fortune 50 CXO exemplifies the need from a slightly different perspective in response to our recently released HumCat offering—a new model for prevention for human-caused catastrophes, including cyber prevention.

I like your idea of an Operating System. I’m so convinced that the world is too complex and getting more complex every second that human beings cannot manage it in the right way anyway… Now, it is time (for the Kyield OS), otherwise we are on the hook of dark side of cybernetics—cybercrime or cyberwar and nobody can defend us.

3  –  Reinventing AI system wheels is not wise

As I shared with a Fortune 20 team recently, while it may be extraordinarily easy to underestimate the amount of tradecraft and secrets for such an endeavor, it is nonetheless foolhardy to do so (hence the AI talent wars). Fortunately for our customers, we’ve done the bulk of the heavy lifting. It was two decades ago this year that Kyield was originally conceived in the lab as an authentic invention (Optimizing knowledge yield in the digital workplace).

Many research and consulting reports on AI systems are available, and they have improved significantly over the past two years (See reports by MIT SMR & BCG and Nordea as recent examples), but caution is warranted. Some consulting firms are still advising to start small and experiment in areas that no longer need experimentation. Although generally appropriate five years ago, it is increasingly dangerous today as the competitive gap due to AI systems is expanding rapidly.

A good example of an ongoing experiment was highlighted in the WSJ CIO Journal: “Swiss Re Bets AI Can Help Workers Cope with Complexity of Reinsurance”. The goal is admirable, achievable and sounds impressive until reading the subtitle: “The company’s 100 data scientists and AI experts are building software that can read documents on their own.” This is not a new technology. If the article is accurate it appears that Swiss Re is spending between 10-100 times more for a small fraction of the functionality found in our Kyield OS. Other options also exist for the specific function described that would likely be much more wise than a custom effort.

Our friends at Swiss Re are far from alone. Munich Re publishes an IT radar report (with a nice diagram) based on research that “systematically analyzes opportunities, trends and technologies, and provides an ongoing insight into which technologies could be relevant for Munich Re and our customers from a very early phase”. In the current 2017 report Munich Re places predictive analytics in adoption phase while advanced machine learning and robotics process automation in the trial phase. These and other recommendations may raise some eyebrows. Predictive analytics has been deployed for many years as has advanced machine learning for specific purposes. If one is competing with a technical leader—and increasingly most are, waiting too long can be a fatal error. The first mover position, however, is not always an advantage, so such decisions need to be situation-specific.

4  – Method and sequence of adoption

To date the super majority of investment in AI systems have been strategic resulting in a few notable successes. We have also witnessed large and costly errors, including in M&A, VC, internal development, and in system designs and business models by vendors.

Horizontal systems like our Kyield OS serve as an efficient platform to unify the organization and ecosystem. Ideally a native AI OS should be adopted first. Quite apart from significant IP liability risk, since our standard system is focused on universal issues for every type of organization, with improved productivity, security, and prevention, it is difficult at best to justify internal custom efforts that replicate any of this functionality. Strategic functions are best built on top and/or integrated with our networked platform OS so that the organization and ecosystem operate in an optimal manner.

All is not lost, however, for those who have experimented in overlapping areas. The modules within the Kyield OS creates the data structure needed for compliance and then populates across the network in a manner designed to execute the functionality within the system as efficiently as possible, including for accuracy, integration and financial efficiency.

Conclusion

As important as external competition can be in this environment, the degree to which displacement will occur is dependent on a number of factors. All things being equal otherwise, the outcome primarily depends on the incumbent’s actions, its people, systems, and processes. Even though some companies may seem well positioned, the fundamental economic and business environment is rapidly changing. To the best of my awareness, survival from this point forward will essentially require a strong AI OS for the super majority of organizations.

Mark Montgomery is the founder and CEO of Kyield, originator of the theorem ‘yield management of knowledge’, and inventor of the patented AI system that serves as the foundation for Kyield: ‘Modular System for Optimizing Knowledge Yield in the Digital Workplace’. He can be reached at markm@kyield.com.

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A Million in Prevention can be Worth Billions of Cure with Distributed AI Systems


Deep Water Horizon Rig (NOAA)

DeepWater Horizon Rig, April 2010 (NOAA News)

Every year, natural catastrophes (nat cat) are highly visible events that cause major damage across the world. In 2016 the cost of nat cats were estimated to be $175 billion, $50 billion of which were covered by insurance, reflecting severe financial losses for impacted areas.[i]  The total cost of natural catastrophes since 2000 was approximately $2.3 trillion.[ii]

Much less understood is that human-caused catastrophes (hum cat) have resulted in much greater economic damage during the same period and have become increasingly preventable. Since 2000 the world has experienced two preventable hum cat events of $10 trillion or more: the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the global financial crisis. In addition, although the Tōhoku earthquake in Japan was unavoidable, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was also preventable, now estimated at $188 billion excluding widespread human suffering and environmental damage.[iii]

One commonality in these and other disasters is that experts issued advanced and accurate evidence-based warnings only to be ignored. The most famous and costly such example was the Phoenix memo issued on July 10, 2001 by Special Agent Kenneth J. Williams.[iv]  The FBI memo was described as “chilling” by the first journalist who reviewed it due to specificity in describing terrorist-linked individuals who were training to fly commercial aircraft.

Williams was a seasoned terrorism expert who followed the prescribed use of the FBI’s rules-based system, yet during the two-month period prior to the 9/11 attacks no relevant action was taken. If the lead had been pursued the terrorist attacks and ensuing events would very likely have been avoided, including two wars with massive casualties and continuing hostilities.

Government agencies have invested heavily in prevention since that fateful day of September 11, 2001 so hopefully similar events will be prevented.

In corporate catastrophes, however, prevention scenarios are usually more complex than the Phoenix memo case. They are also occurring with increasing frequency and expanding in scale and cost.

The remainder of this article can be viewed at Cognitive World.

View brief video by Mark related to this article and Kyield’s new HumCat product.

Mark Montgomery is the founder and CEO of Kyield, originator of the theorem ‘yield management of knowledge’, and inventor of the patented AI system that serves as the foundation for Kyield: ‘Modular System for Optimizing Knowledge Yield in the Digital Workplace’. He can be reached at markm@kyield.com.

We must empower a more diversified economy in 2016


Austin Christmas Hat 1

Those of us growing up in the 1960s and 1970s experienced tumultuous times that had some similarities to the last decade. Among many other contributions from our generation—which include both positive and negative influences—were some great artists, one of whom Bob Dylan is featured in a massive IBM ad campaign. Dylan’s poetry is timeless and quite relevant today:

The post WW2 era we grew up in provided the best economic conditions the world has ever known. The baby boom population explosion, of which I am at the tail end of, combined with vast sequential gains in productivity to create the ‘miracles’ of economies in the U.S., Japan, Germany, and China among others, or so it seemed.

Although a few credible experts have warned all along that the world’s trajectory wasn’t sustainable, and perhaps most of us intuitively realized same, the financial crisis contained a potential silver lining in revealing the stark naked truth: much of that ‘success’ in the post war era came at the direct expense of the future, and the bills are coming due.

Although woefully deficient in ethics with poor visibility of systemic risk—even in cases where desire for prevention existed, master politicians and financial engineers in both the public and private sector have masked structural problems in the economy for decades—from the public and each other, by employing ever-more complex short-term remedies in a misguided game of musical chairs.

Unfortunately, the resolution of the financial crisis has consisted primarily of the very same type of financial engineering—it’s the only hammers central banks have in their toolbox. While central bankers are justified in pointing fingers at political and fiscal malfeasance, it’s up to humble citizens like me to hold up a mirror and suggest that they take a look to see that such malfeasance would not be possible if not empowered by monetary policy.

One certainty is that the super majority of consolidated malfeasance in much of the world has been transferred to the balance sheets of central banks and national debt at direct cost to billions of people, many of whom followed the rules, not least those who saved all their lives just as their public institutions recommended.  Those savings have been taxed for nearly a decade now by monetary policy rather than a democratic process; by devaluation of currency, record low (or negative) interest rates, inflation from asset bubbles such as commodities and housing, and the need for hundreds of millions to tap their principal for survival. Also certain is that regardless of whether or which stimulus measures were necessary, one outcome has been a dangerous expansion of the wealth gap now at record level in the modern era.

It’s very important to better understand that the previous wealth gap peak in the 1920s was partially causal to the Great Depression and WW2, among other earlier great revolutions and loss of life. Today’s billionaires seem to understand the moral hazard and potential for backlash, which is presumably one of the reasons for the philanthropic pledges. A nice gesture that will hopefully do much good, philanthropy is not an alternative for economic diversification, though can help if targeted for that purpose.

The financial crisis represents precisely how corrosive moral hazard is realized at dangerous levels that can reach critical mass, which could be triggered by unforeseen events.  Moral hazard is a psychological phenomenon, which occurs from regulatory, governance and policy failures that then combine with the ensuing economic weakness to cause the next crisis.  In this case the trigger was regulatory failure followed by heavy-handed resolution that caused massive collateral damage, further harming innocent citizens worldwide. In such cases where the non-virtuous (aka vicious) cycle is not interrupted by a moral realignment, typically through accountability by the justice system, strong credible governance, and adoption of new systems that punishes crimes and rewards beneficial behavior, then civilizations can and do rapidly decline.

In hindsight from a high level view, from a hopefully wiser former business consultant who has studied related phenomenon for decades now, it appears that we enjoyed a long period of one-off exploitations of planet and people combined with ever-increasing public debt and corruption supporting promises by politicians and institutions that were far beyond their means to deliver.

The bad news is that the combination of public debt and future liabilities tragically promised by politicians—and now expected—some portion of which is necessary to survive in the high cost modern economy caused by these policies, can’t possibly be paid by the current economy.

The good news is that not all of that massive spend on R&D over decades has gone to waste, and we now have much more accountable systems that can indeed prevent the super majority of future crises, if only we can muster the courage to adopt them. We are also seeing dramatic improvements in systems that have the capacity for exponential productivity growth over time, which is the only method in our current economic system to cover national debt, unfunded liabilities, and the needs of a quickly aging global population, given the immense future needs in healthcare, environment and economics.

So my plan for 2016 is to tap the exponentially decreased cost and performance improvement in computing hardware and algorithmics to extend our networked artificial intelligence system to the mid-market, NGOs, and governments to provide them with a world class system unavailable to anyone at any cost until very recently. My hope is that our Kyield OS will help even the playing field and lead to a more dynamic and robust economy of the type that is only possible with healthy balance of diversification. Soon thereafter we plan to do the same directly for small business and individuals.

“If your time to you is worth savin’
you better start swimmin’, or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’”
– Bob Dylan

Yield Management of Knowledge for Industry + FAQs


Industrial Yield Management of Knowledge from www.kyield.com

I decided to share this slightly edited version of a diagram that was part of a presentation we recently completed for an industry leading organization. Based on feedback this may be the most easily understandable graphic we’ve produced to date in communicating the Kyield enterprise system. As part of the same project we published a new FAQs page on our web site that may be of interest.  Most of my writing over the past several months has been in private tailored papers and presentations related to our pilot and partner programs.

I may include a version of this diagram in a public white paper soon if I can carve out some writing time. If you don’t hear from me before then I wish you and your family a happy holiday season.

Kind regards, MM

White board video presentation on Kyield Enterprise


Kyield founder Mark Montgomery provides a 14 minute white board presentation on Kyield Enterprise and the Kyield Enterprise Pilot

Converting the Enterprise to an Adaptive Neural Network


Those tracking business and financial news may have observed that a little bit of knowledge in the corner office about enterprise architecture, software, and data can cause great harm, including for the occupant, often resulting in a moving van parked under the corner suite of corporate headquarters shortly after headlines on their latest preventable crisis. Exploitation of ignorance in the board room surrounding enterprise computing has become mastered by some, and is therefore among the greatest of many challenges for emerging technology that has the capacity for significant improvement.

The issues surrounding neural networks requires total immersion for extended duration. Since many organizations lack the luxury of time, let’s get to it.

Beware the Foreshadow of the Black Swan

A recent article by Reuters confirms what is perhaps the worst kept secret in the post printing press era: Many Wall Street executives say wrongdoing is necessary: survey. A whopping 25% of those surveyed believe that in order to be personally successful, they must conduct themselves in an unethical manner to include breaking important laws, some of which are intended to defend against contagion; a powerful red flag warning even if only partially true.

This reminds me of a situation almost a decade ago when I had the unpleasant task of engaging the president of a leading university about one of their finance professors who may have been addressing a few respondents to this very survey when he lectured: “if you want to survive in finance, forget ethics”. Unfortunately for everyone else, even if that curriculum served the near-term interests of the students, which is doubtful given what has transpired since, it cannot end well for civilization. Fortunately, in this case the university president responded immediately, and well beyond expectation, after I sent an email stating that I would end my relationship with the university if that philosophy was shared by the institution.

For directors, CEOs, CFOs, and CROs in any sector, this latest story should only confirm that if an individual is willing to risk a felony for his/her success, then experience warns that corporate governance rates very low on their list of priorities. Black Swan events should therefore be expected in such an environment, and so everything possible should be planned and executed to prevent them, which requires mastering neural networks.

Functional Governance: As simple as possible; as complex as necessary

Functional governance and crisis prevention in the modern complex organization requires deep understanding of the organizational dynamics embedded within data architecture found throughout the far more complex environment of enterprise networks and all interconnected networks.

Kyield Enterprise Diagram 2.7 (protected by Copyright and U.S. Patent)

Are you thinking what I think you may be thinking about now? In fact adaptive neural networks in a large enterprise is quite comparable to the complexity found in brain surgery or rocket science, and in some environments even more so. The largest enterprise neural networks today far outnumber comparable nodes, information exchanges, and memory of even the most exceptional human neurological system. Of course biological systems are self-contained with far more embedded intelligence that adapt to an amazing variety of change, which usually enables sustainability throughout a complete lifecycle—our lives, with little or no external effort required. Unfortunately, even the most advanced enterprise neural networks today are still primitive by comparison to biological systems, are not adaptive by design, and are subject to a menagerie of internal and external influences that directly conflict with the future health of the patient, aka the mission of the organization.

So the next question might be, where do we start?

The simple answer is that most organizations started decades ago with the emergence of computer networking and currently manage a very primitive, fragmented neural network that wasn’t planned at all, but rather evolved in an incremental manner where proprietary standards became commoditized and lost the ability to provide competitive differentiation, yet are still very expensive to maintain. Those needing a more competitive architecture have come to the right place at the right time as we are deeply engaged in crafting tailored action plans for several organizations at various stages of our pilot program for Kyield enterprise, which is among the best examples of a state-of-the-art, adaptive enterprise neural network architecture I am aware of. We’ve recently engaged with large to very large organizations in banking, insurance, biotech, government, manufacturing, telecommunications, engineering and pharmaceuticals in the early stages of our pilot process.

Tailored Blueprint

Think of the plan as a combination of a technical paper, a deeply tailored use case for each organization, and a detailed time-line spanning several years. In some ways it serves as sort of a redevelopment blueprint for a neighborhood that has been locked-in to ancient infrastructure with outdated electrical, plumbing, and transportation systems that are no longer compatible or competitive. Most have either suffered a crisis, or wisely intent on prevention, while seeking a significant competitive advantage.

The step-by-step process we are tailoring for each customer serves to guide collaborative teams through the conversion process from the ‘current architecture’ to an ‘adaptable neural enterprise network’, starting with the appropriate business unit and extending throughout subsidiaries over weeks, months and years in careful orchestration according to the prioritized needs of each while preventing operational disruptions. Since we embrace independent standards with no lock-in or maintenance fees and offer attractive long-term incentives, the risk for not engaging in our pilot program appears much greater than for those who do. In some cases it looks like we may be able to decrease TCO substantially despite generational improvement in functionality.

Those who are interested and believe they may be a good candidate for our pilot program are welcome to contact me anytime.

On Defining E-Government


—– Original Message —–
From: Mark Montgomery
To: eGov IG (Public)
Sent: Tuesday, April 24, 2012 3:35 PM
Subject: Re: what do you mean, e-gov?

 

One common irony with new disciplines and new technologies has been that we have thought leaders in many disciplines coming together to work toward the obvious benefit for the whole, yet are quite often very late to the game of defining our own role and mission. Too often has been the case when definitions are left to those with conflicts simply for lack of timely response from those in the trenches, and/or inability to form a consensus. A good rule of thumb seems to be that if you don’t define it someone else will sooner than later.

 

For many it is very difficult to consider any work credible that requires resources but has not been defined by the champions, aka sales people. Proper governance, use of public money, public trust, and fiduciary responsibility require no less than a definition– in many local governance schemes expending resources requires a definition by rule of law.

 

Of course that does not mean to suggest that orgs, agencies, local gov’t should wait for anyone to play around with definitions for years (or decades)– I did that with standards and therefore cannot recommend it for anyone other than the super wealthy and/or super spiritual living in a mountaintop monastery somewhere (humor folks). If efficiencies are obvious, as they often are, then of course any leader should grab the low hanging fruit and define it for their own use — especially given the fiscal situations in most of the developed world. To not do so is irresponsible in a world of massive needs and finite resources (dwindling, far from sustainable at this point–at least there is some consensus on that). However, that’s also precisely how the world wound up with massive data silos. So it’s surprising that no definition has been created and released by either this group or some other working the problem.

 

1) Of course definitions should include the rule of law as sovereign governments determine, within guidelines of international law, treaties, etc. Otherwise it would presumably be illegal in those jurisdictions anyway. However as many here have long considered looking to future functionality, universal compatibility will presumably be included.

 

2) Do not allow any special interest group or ideology to influence the definition (even if social herding/majority–perhaps especially then), or lack thereof (including government unions and corporations that often take an activist role), as we’ve seen in other cases.

 

In this case this would seem particularly important due to the potential economic efficiencies involved with the common usage of the term itself within the broader context in the world we live in, and in the era in which we live in it. That is to say that proper governance would require evidence-based stewardship, which at the moment the best evidence strongly points towards the need for a definition that includes economic and ecological sustainability.

Of course that well intentioned inclusion alone threatens enormous powerful interests– any progress does at this point. I am not suggesting inviting controversy, just that e-government and the standards employed should be based on the best evidence available on the solid ground of unbiased truth seekers; not the institutions or sponsors or guilds that employ them. May seem obvious but requires constant vigilance still.

 

3) Make an exceptional effort to be aware and understand one’s own bias– not restricted to conflict (academia, religion, industry, corporation, government), but bias in the specific discipline, culture (sector, geography, etc.) and even general philosophy. Advocacy has proven often to be a double edged sword in this regard with some seemingly not aware that they even have two edges, while others have proven remarkably skillful in the application of both edges while claiming ignorance that a weapon even exists.

Please allow me to pass on a warning given to me by one of the most prominent and respected IT industry/academic leaders a few years ago in discussing adoption of semantics one on one in one of the most influential orgs (paraphrase) — “expect arrows in the back, for they will surely fly if you are doing anything worthwhile in the modern era–it only demonstrates that you are in the lead”.

 

Of all the advice I have received in my career, this has proven to be the most wise and accurate, particularly surrounding technical standards.

 

Mark Montgomery
Founder & CEO – Kyield
web: http://www.kyield.com
blog: https://kyield.wordpress.com
email: markm@kyield.com
Twitter: @kyield

Legacy of the Tōhoku Earthquake: Moral Imperative to Prevent a Future Fukushima Crisis


An article in the New York Times reminds us once again that without a carefully crafted and highly disciplined governance architecture in place, perceived misalignment of personal interests between individuals and organizations across cultural ecosystems can lead to catastrophic decisions and outcomes. The article was written by Martin Fackler and is titled: Nuclear Disaster in Japan Was Avoidable, Critics Contend.

While not unexpected by those who study crises, rather yet another case where brave individuals raised red flags only to be shouted down by the crowd, the article does provide instructive granularity that should guide senior executives, directors, and policy makers in planning organizational models and enterprise systems. In a rare statement by a leading publication, Martin Fackler reports that insiders within “Japan’s tightly knit nuclear industry” attributed the Fukushima plant meltdown to a “culture of collusion in which powerful regulators and compliant academic experts”.  This is a very similar dynamic found in other preventable crises, from the broad systemic financial crisis to narrow product defect cases.

One of the individuals who warned regulators of just such an event was professor Kunihiko Shimizaki, a seismologist on the committee created specifically to manage risk associated with Japan’s off shore earthquakes. Shimizaki’s conservative warnings were not only ignored, but his comments were removed from the final report “pending further research”. Shimizaki is reported to believe that “fault lay not in outright corruption, but rather complicity among like-minded insiders who prospered for decades by scratching one another’s backs.”  This is almost verbatim to events in the U.S. where multi-organizational cultures evolved slowly over time to become among the highest systemic risks to life, property, and economy.

In another commonly found result, the plant operator Tepco failed to act on multiple internal warnings from their own engineers who calculated that a tsunami could reach up to 50 feet in height. This critical information was not revealed to regulators for three years, finally reported just four days before the 9.0 quake occurred causing a 45 foot tsunami, resulting in the meltdown of three reactors at Fukushima.

Three questions for consideration

1) Given that the root cause of the Fukushima meltdown was not the accurately predicted earthquake or tsunami, but rather dysfunctional organizational governance, are leaders not then compelled by moral imperative to seek out and implement organizational systems specifically designed to prevent crises in the future?

2) Given that peer pressure and social dynamics within the academic culture and relationship with regulators and industry are cited as the cause by the most credible witness—from their own community who predicted the event, would not prudence demand that responsible decision makers consider solutions external of the inflicted cultures?

3) With the not-invented-here-syndrome near the core of every major crises in recent history, which have seriously degraded economic capacity, can anyone afford not to?

Steps that must be taken to prevent the next Fukushima

1) Do not return to the same poisoned well for solutions that caused or enabled the crisis

  • The not-invented-here-syndrome combined with bias for institutional solutions perpetuates the myth that humans are incapable of anything but repeating the same errors over again.

  • This phenomenon is evident in the ongoing financial crisis which suffers from similar cultural dynamics between academics, regulators and industry.

  • Researchers have only recently begun to understand the problems associated with deep expertise in isolated disciplines and cultural dynamics. ‘Expertisis’ is a serious problem within disciplines that tend to blind researchers from transdisciplinary patterns and discovery, severely limiting consideration of possible solutions.

  • Systemic crises overlaps too many disciplines for the academic model to execute functional solutions, evidenced by the committee in this case that sidelined their own seismologist’s warnings for further study, which represents a classic enabler of systemic crises.

2) Understand that in the current digital era through the foreseeable future, organizational governance challenges are also data governance challenges, which requires the execution of data governance solutions

    • Traditional organizational governance is rapidly breaking down with the rise of the neural network economy, yet governance solutions are comparably slow to be adopted.

    • Many organizational leaders, policy makers, risk managers, and public safety engineers are not functionally literate with state-of-the-art technology, such as semantic, predictive, and human alignment methodologies.

    • Functional enterprise architecture that has the capacity to prevent the next Fukushima-like event, regardless of location, industry, or sector, will require a holistic design encapsulating a philosophy that proactively considers all variables that have enabled previous events.

      • Any functional architecture for this task cannot be constrained by the not-invented-here-syndrome, defense of guilds, proprietary standards, protection of business models, national pride, institutional pride, branding, culture, or any other factor.

3) Adopt a Finely Woven Decision Tapestry with Carefully Crafted Strands of Human, Sensory, and Business Intelligence

Data provenance is foundational to any functioning critical system in the modern organization, providing:

      • Increased accountability

      • Increased security

      • Carefully managed transparency

      • Far more functional automation

      • The possibility of accurate real-time auditing

4) Extend advanced analytics to the entire human workforce

      • incentives for pre-emptive problem solving and innovation

      • Automate information delivery:

        • Record notification

        • Track and verify resolution

        • Extend network to unbiased regulators of regulators

      • Plug-in multiple predictive models:

        • -establish resolution of conflicts with unbiased review.

        • Automatically include results in reporting to prevent obstacles to essential targeted transparency as occurred in the Fukushima incident

5) Include sensory, financial, and supply chain data in real-time enterprise architecture and reporting

      • Until this year, extending advanced analytics to the entire human workforce was considered futuristic (see 1/10/2012 Forrester Research report Future of BI), in part due to scaling limitations in high performance computing. While always evolving, the design has existed for a decade

      • Automated data generated by sensors should be carefully crafted and combined in modeling with human and financial data for predictive applications for use in risk management, planning, regulatory oversight and operations.

        • Near real-time reporting is now possible, so governance structures and enterprise architectural design should reflect that functionality.

 

Conclusion

While obviously not informed by a first-person audit and review, if reports and quotes from witnesses surrounding the Fukushima crisis are accurate, which are generally consistent from dozens of other human caused crises, we can conclude the following:

The dysfunctional socio-economic relationships in this case resulted in an extremely toxic cultural dynamic across academia, regulators and industry that shared tacit intent to protect the nuclear industry. Their collective actions, however, resulted in an outcome that idled the entire industry in Japan with potentially very serious long-term implications for their national economy.

Whether psychological, social, technical, economic, or some combination thereof, it would seem that no justification for not deploying the most advanced crisis prevention systems can be left standing. Indeed, we all have a moral imperative that demands of us to rise above our bias, personal and institutional conflicts, and defensive nature, to explore and embrace the most appropriate solutions, regardless of origin, institutional labeling, media branding, or any other factor. Some crises are indeed too severe not to prevent.

Mark Montgomery
Founder & CEO
Kyield
http://www.kyield.com

Interview with Jenny Zaino at Semanticweb.com


Just wanted to share this interview and article with Jenny Zaino over at Semanticweb.com on my recent patent and related IP.

Manage Structured Data and Reap the Benefits

A detailed paper on this topic is nearing completion and will post a brief and description in the next few days.

Key patent issued


My key patent for Kyield was issued today by the USPTO as scheduled earlier this month.

Title: Modular system for optimizing knowledge yield in the digital workplace

Abstract: A networked computer system, architecture, and method are provided for optimizing human and intellectual capital in the digital workplace environment.

To view our press release go here

To view the actual patent  go here

I will post an article when time allows on the importance of this technology and IP, and perhaps one on the experience with the patent system. Thanks, MM